Using Instrumental Variables to Measure Causation over Time in Cross-Lagged Panel Models.

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are commonly used to estimate causal influences between two variables with repeated assessments. The lagged effects in a CLPM depend on the time interval between assessments, eventually becoming undetectable at longer intervals. To address this limitation, we incorporate instrumental variables (IVs) into the CLPM with two study waves and two variables. Doing so enables estimation of both the lagged (i.e., "distal") effects and the bidirectional cross-sectional (i.e., "proximal") effects at each wave. The distal effects reflect Granger-causal influences across time, which decay with increasing time intervals. The proximal effects capture causal influences that accrue over time and can help infer causality when the distal effects become undetectable at longer intervals. Significant proximal effects, with a negligible distal effect, would imply that the time interval is too long to estimate a lagged effect at that time interval using the standard CLPM. Through simulations and an empirical application, we demonstrate the impact of time intervals on causal inference in the CLPM and present modeling strategies to detect causal influences regardless of the time interval in a study. Furthermore, to motivate empirical applications of the proposed model, we highlight the utility and limitations of using genetic variables as IVs in large-scale panel studies.

Structural models of genome-wide covariance identify multiple common dimensions in autism.

Common genetic variation has been associated with multiple phenotypic features in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). However, our knowledge of shared genetic factor structures contributing to this highly heterogeneous phenotypic spectrum is limited. Here, we developed and implemented a structural equation modelling framework to directly model genomic covariance across core and non-core ASD phenotypes, studying autistic individuals of European descent with a case-only design. We identified three independent genetic factors most strongly linked to language performance, behaviour and developmental motor delay, respectively, studying an autism community sample (N = 5331). The three-factorial structure was largely confirmed in independent ASD-simplex families (N = 1946), although we uncovered, in addition, simplex-specific genetic overlap between behaviour and language phenotypes. Multivariate models across cohorts revealed novel associations, including links between language and early mastering of self-feeding. Thus, the common genetic architecture in ASD is multi-dimensional with overarching genetic factors contributing, in combination with ascertainment-specific patterns, to phenotypic heterogeneity.

Using Alternative Definitions of Controls to Increase Statistical Power in GWAS.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are underpowered due to small effect sizes of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on phenotypes and extreme multiple testing thresholds. The most common approach for increasing statistical power is to increase sample size. We propose an alternative strategy of redefining case-control outcomes into ordinal case-subthreshold-asymptomatic variables. While maintaining the clinical case threshold, we subdivide controls into two groups: individuals who are symptomatic but do not meet the clinical criteria for diagnosis (subthreshold) and individuals who are effectively asymptomatic. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of effect size, minor allele frequency, population prevalence, and the prevalence of the subthreshold group on statistical power to detect genetic associations in three scenarios: a standard case-control, an ordinal, and a case-asymptomatic control analysis. Our results suggest the ordinal model consistently provides the most statistical power while the case-control model the least. Power in the case-asymptomatic control model reflects the case-control or ordinal model depending on the population prevalence and size of the subthreshold category. We then analyzed a major depression phenotype from the UK Biobank to corroborate our simulation results. Overall, the ordinal model improves statistical power in GWAS consistent with increasing the sample size by approximately 10%.

Power, measurement error, and pleiotropy robustness in twin-design extensions to Mendelian Randomization.

Mendelian Randomization (MR) has become an important tool for causal inference in the health sciences. It takes advantage of the random segregation of alleles to control for background confounding factors. In brief, the method works by using genetic variants as instrumental variables, but it depends on the assumption of exclusion restriction, i.e., that the variants affect the outcome exclusively via the exposure variable. Equivalently, the assumption states that there is no horizontal pleiotropy from the variant to the outcome. This assumption is unlikely to hold in nature, so several extensions to MR have been developed to increase its robustness against horizontal pleiotropy, though not eliminating the problem entirely (Sanderson et al. 2022). The Direction of Causation (DoC) model, which affords information from the cross-twin cross-trait correlations to estimate causal paths, was extended with polygenic scores to explicitly model horizontal pleiotropy and a causal path (MR-DoC, Minica et al 2018). MR-DoC was further extended to accommodate bidirectional causation (MR-DoC2 ; Castro-de-Araujo et al. 2023). In the present paper, we compared the power of the DoC model, MR-DoC, and MR-DoC2. We investigated the effect of phenotypic measurement error and the effect of misspecification of unshared (individual-specific) environmental factors on the parameter estimates.

MR-DoC2: Bidirectional Causal Modeling with Instrumental Variables and Data from Relatives.

Establishing causality is an essential step towards developing interventions for psychiatric disorders, substance use and many other conditions. While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for causal inference, they are unethical in many scenarios. Mendelian randomization (MR) can be used in such cases, but importantly both RCTs and MR assume unidirectional causality. In this paper, we developed a new model, MRDoC2, that can be used to identify bidirectional causation in the presence of confounding due to both familial and non-familial sources. Our model extends the MRDoC model (Minica et al. in Behav Genet 48:337-349,  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10519-018-9904-4 , 2018), by simultaneously including risk scores for each trait. Furthermore, the power to detect causal effects in MRDoC2 does not require the phenotypes to have different additive genetic or shared environmental sources of variance, as is the case in the direction of causation twin model (Heath et al. in Behav Genet 23:29-50,  https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01067552 , 1993).

Multivariate genome-wide covariance analyses of literacy, language and working memory skills reveal distinct etiologies.

Several abilities outside literacy proper are associated with reading and spelling, both phenotypically and genetically, though our knowledge of multivariate genomic covariance structures is incomplete. Here, we introduce structural models describing genetic and residual influences between traits to study multivariate links across measures of literacy, phonological awareness, oral language, and phonological working memory (PWM) in unrelated UK youth (8-13 years, N = 6453). We find that all phenotypes share a large proportion of underlying genetic variation, although especially oral language and PWM reveal substantial differences in their genetic variance composition with substantial trait-specific genetic influences. Multivariate genetic and residual trait covariance showed concordant patterns, except for marked differences between oral language and literacy/phonological awareness, where strong genetic links contrasted near-zero residual overlap. These findings suggest differences in etiological mechanisms, acting beyond a pleiotropic set of genetic variants, and implicate variation in trait modifiability even among phenotypes that have high genetic correlations.

Using Genetic Marginal Effects to Study Gene-Environment Interactions with GWAS Data.

Gene-environment interactions (GxE) play a central role in the theoretical relationship between genetic factors and complex traits. While genome wide GxE studies of human behaviors remain underutilized, in part due to methodological limitations, existing GxE research in model organisms emphasizes the importance of interpreting genetic associations within environmental contexts. In this paper, we present a framework for conducting an analysis of GxE using raw data from genome wide association studies (GWAS) and applying the techniques to analyze gene-by-age interactions for alcohol use frequency. To illustrate the effectiveness of this procedure, we calculate genetic marginal effects from a GxE GWAS analysis for an ordinal measure of alcohol use frequency from the UK Biobank dataset, treating the respondent's age as the continuous moderating environment. The genetic marginal effects clarify the interpretation of the GxE associations and provide a direct and clear understanding of how the genetic associations vary across age (the environment). To highlight the advantages of our proposed methods for presenting GxE GWAS results, we compare the interpretation of marginal genetic effects with an interpretation that focuses narrowly on the significance of the interaction coefficients. The results imply that the genetic associations with alcohol use frequency vary considerably across ages, a conclusion that may not be obvious from the raw regression or interaction coefficients. GxE GWAS is less powerful than the standard "main effect" GWAS approach, and therefore require larger samples to detect significant moderated associations. Fortunately, the necessary sample sizes for a successful application of GxE GWAS can rely on the existing and on-going development of consortia and large-scale population-based studies.

Clarifying the Genetic Influences on Nicotine Dependence and Quantity of Use in Cigarette Smokers.

Nicotine dependence and smoking quantity are both robustly associated with the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster in the 15q25 region, and SNP rs16969968 in particular. The purpose of this paper is to use structural equation modeling techniques (SEM) to disentangle the complex pattern of relationships between rs16969968, nicotine quantity (as measured by the number of cigarettes an individual smokes per day; CPD) and nicotine dependence (as measured by the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence; FTND). CPD is an indicator, but also a potential cause, of FTND, complicating the interpretation of associations between these constructs and requires a more detailed investigation than standard GWAS or general linear regression models can provide. FTND items and genotypes were collected in four samples, with a combined sample size of 5,373 respondents. A mega-analysis was conducted using a multiple group SEM approach to test competing hypotheses regarding the relationships between the SNP rs16969968, FTND and CPD. In the best fitting model, the FTND items loaded onto two correlated factors. The first, labeled "maintenance," assesses the motivation to maintain constant levels of nicotine through out the day. The second was labeled "urgency" as its items concern the urgency to restore nicotine levels after abstinence. We focus our attention on the "maintenance" factor, of which CPD was an indicator. The best fitting model included a negative feedback loop between the Maintenance factor and CPD. Accordingly, the motivation to maintain higher levels of nicotine increased the quantity of nicotine consumed, which subsequently decreases the maintenance motivation. The fact that the Maintenance-CPD feedback model fits the data best implies that there are at least two biological pathways that lead from rs16969968 to smoking behaviors. The model is consistent with a supply and demand system, which allows individuals to achieve a homeostatic equilibrium for their nicotine concentration.

GW-SEM 2.0: Efficient, Flexible, and Accessible Multivariate GWAS.

Most genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses test the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a single trait or outcome. While valuable second-step analyses of these associations (e.g., calculating genetic correlations between traits) are common, single-step multivariate analyses of GWAS data are rarely performed. This is unfortunate because multivariate analyses can reveal information which is irrevocably obscured in multi-step analysis. One simple example is the distinction between variance common to a set of measures, and variance specific to each. Neither GWAS of sum- or factor-scores, nor GWAS of the individual measures will deliver a clean picture of loci associated with each measure's specific variance. While multivariate GWAS opens up a broad new landscape of feasible and informative analyses, its adoption has been slow, likely due to the heavy computational demands and difficulties specifying models it requires. Here we describe GW-SEM 2.0, which is designed to simplify model specification and overcome the inherent computational challenges associated with multivariate GWAS. In addition, GW-SEM 2.0 allows users to accurately model ordinal items, which are common in behavioral and psychological research, within a GWAS context. This new release enhances computational efficiency, allows users to select the fit function that is appropriate for their analyses, expands compatibility with standard genomic data formats, and outputs results for seamless reading into other standard post-GWAS processing software. To demonstrate GW-SEM's utility, we conducted (1) a series of GWAS using three substance use frequency items from data in the UK Biobank, (2) a timing study for several predefined GWAS functions, and (3) a Type I Error rate study. Our multivariate GWAS analyses emphasize the utility of GW-SEM for identifying novel patterns of associations that vary considerably between genomic loci for specific substances, highlighting the importance of differentiating between substance-specific use behaviors and polysubstance use. The timing studies demonstrate that the analyses take a reasonable amount of time and show the cost of including additional items. The Type I Error rate study demonstrates that hypothesis tests for genetic associations with latent variable models follow the hypothesized uniform distribution. Taken together, we suggest that GW-SEM may provide substantially deeper insights into the underlying genomic architecture for multivariate behavioral and psychological systems than is currently possible with standard GWAS methods. The current release of GW-SEM 2.0 is available on CRAN (stable release) and GitHub (beta release), and tutorials are available on our github wiki ( https://jpritikin.github.io/gwsem/ ).

Best Practices for Binary and Ordinal Data Analyses.

The measurement of many human traits, states, and disorders begins with a set of items on a questionnaire. The response format for these questions is often simply binary (e.g., yes/no) or ordered (e.g., high, medium or low). During data analysis, these items are frequently summed or used to estimate factor scores. In clinical applications, such assessments are often non-normally distributed in the general population because many respondents are unaffected, and therefore asymptomatic. As a result, in many cases these measures violate the statistical assumptions required for subsequent analyses. To reduce the influence of the non-normality and quasi-continuous assessment, variables are frequently recoded into binary (affected-unaffected) or ordinal (mild-moderate-severe) diagnoses. Ordinal data therefore present challenges at multiple levels of analysis. Categorizing continuous variables into ordered categories typically results in a loss of statistical power, which represents an incentive to the data analyst to assume that the data are normally distributed, even when they are not. Despite prior zeitgeists suggesting that, e.g., variables with more than 10 ordered categories may be regarded as continuous and analyzed as if they were, we show via simulation studies that this is not generally the case. In particular, using Pearson product-moment correlations instead of maximum likelihood estimates of polychoric correlations biases the estimated correlations towards zero. This bias is especially severe when a plurality of the observations fall into a single observed category, such as a score of zero. By contrast, estimating the ordinal correlation by maximum likelihood yields no estimation bias, although standard errors are (appropriately) larger. We also illustrate how odds ratios depend critically on the proportion or prevalence of affected individuals in the population, and therefore are sub-optimal for studies where comparisons of association metrics are needed. Finally, we extend these analyses to the classical twin model and demonstrate that treating binary data as continuous will underestimate genetic and common environmental variance components, and overestimate unique environment (residual) variance. These biases increase as prevalence declines. While modeling ordinal data appropriately may be more computationally intensive and time consuming, failing to do so will likely yield biased correlations and biased parameter estimates from modeling them.

Predictors of At-Home Arterial Oxygen Desaturation Events in Ambulatory Surgical Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the early recovery phase occurring at-home after anesthesia and surgery in ambulatory surgical patients. We studied quantitative oximetry and quality-of-life metrics in the first 48 hours after same-day orthopedic surgery examining the association between the recovery metrics and specific patient and procedural factors. METHODS: We used the STOP-Bang score to quantify patient risk for obstructive sleep apnea in 50 adult patients at 2 centers using continuous portable oximetry and patient journaling. Parametric statistical procedures were used to assess relationships among patient and procedural factors and desaturation events. RESULTS: Higher STOP-Bang scores were predictive of the number and duration of desaturation events below mild and severe thresholds for arterial oxygen saturation during their first 48 hours after discharge from ambulatory surgery. Older patients and patients with higher BMI in particular were at an increased risk of mild and severe arterial oxygen desaturation. Using a home CPAP reduced the number of desaturation events. Of interest, taking opiate analgesics decreased the number of desaturation events. CONCLUSIONS: Given the absence of systematic research of early ambulatory anesthesia/surgery recovery at home and concerns of postoperative respiratory events, our results have clear implications for patient safety. Our results imply that screening based on noninvasive STOP-Bang scores may allow for suggestions for recovery from ambulatory surgery, such as encouraging patients with high scores to use home CPAP and aggressive education regarding use of opiates.

Sociopolitical Attitudes Through the Lens of Behavioral Genetics: Contributions from Dr Nicholas Martin.

Professor Nicholas (Nick) Martin spearheaded initial investigations into the genetic basis of political attitudes and behaviors, demonstrating that behaviors that are perceived as socially constructed could have a biological basis. As he showed, the typical mode of inheritance for political attitudes consists of approximately equal proportions of variance from additive genetic, shared environmental and unique environmental sources. This differs from other psychological variables, such as personality traits, which tend to be characterized by genetic and unique environmental sources of variation. By treating political attitudes as a model phenotype, Nick Martin was able to leverage the unique pattern of observed intergenerational transmission for political attitudes to reexamine the quintessential assumptions of the classical twin model. Specifically, by creatively leveraging the nuances of the genetic architecture of political attitudes, he was able to demonstrate the robustness of the equal environments assumption and suggest corrections to account for assortative mating. These advances have had a substantial impact on both the fields of political science, as well as behavioral and quantitative genetics.

Genetic and environmental risk structure of internalizing psychopathology in youth.

BACKGROUND: Internalizing disorders (IDs), consisting of syndromes of anxiety and depression, are common, debilitating conditions often beginning early in life. Various trait-like psychological constructs are associated with IDs. Our prior analysis identified a tripartite model of Fear/Anxiety, Dysphoria, and Positive Affect among symptoms of anxiety and depression and the following constructs in youth: anxiety sensitivity, fearfulness, behavioral activation and inhibition, irritability, neuroticism, and extraversion. The current study sought to elucidate their overarching latent genetic and environmental risk structure. METHODS: The sample consisted of 768 juvenile twin subjects ages 9-14 assessed for the nine, abovementioned measures. We compared two multivariate twin models of this broad array of phenotypes. RESULTS: A hypothesis-driven, common pathway twin model reflecting the tripartite structure of the measures were fit to these data. However, an alternative independent pathway model provided both a better fit and more nuanced insights into their underlying genetic and environmental risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a complex latent genetic and environmental structure to ID phenotypes in youth. This structure, which incorporates both clinical symptoms and various psychological traits, informs future phenotypic approaches for identifying specific genetic and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying ID risk.

Genome-wide association study of shared liability to anxiety disorders in Army STARRS.

Anxiety disorders (ANX), namely generalized anxiety, panic disorder, and phobias, are common, etiologically complex syndromes that show increasing prevalence and comorbidity throughout adolescence and beyond. Few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) examining ANX risk have been published and almost exclusively in individuals of European ancestry. In this study, we phenotyped participants from the Army Study To Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) to approximate DSM-based ANX diagnoses. We factor-analyzed those to create a single dimensional anxiety score for each subject. GWAS were conducted using that score within each of three ancestral groups (EUR, AFR, LAT) and then meta-analyzed across ancestries (NTotal = 16,510). We sought to (a) replicate prior ANX GWAS findings in ANGST; (b) determine whether results extended to other ancestry groups; and (c) meta-analyze with ANGST for increased power to identify novel susceptibility loci. No reliable genome-wide significant SNP associations were detected in STARRS. However, SNPs within the CAMKMT gene located in region 2p21 associated with shared ANX risk in ANGST were replicated in EUR soldiers but not other ancestry groups. Combining EUR STARRS and ANGST (N = 28,950) yielded a more robust 2p21 association signal (p = 9.08x10-11 ). Gene-based analyses supported three genes within 2p21 and LBX1 on chromosome 10. More powerful ANX genetic studies will be required to identify further loci.

Associations between polygenic risk for tobacco and alcohol use and liability to tobacco and alcohol use, and psychiatric disorders in an independent sample of 13,999 Australian adults.

BACKGROUND: Substance use, substance use disorders (SUDs), and psychiatric disorders commonly co-occur. Genetic risk common to these complex traits is an important explanation; however, little is known about how polygenic risk for tobacco or alcohol use overlaps the genetic risk for the comorbid SUDs and psychiatric disorders. METHODS: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using GWAS meta-analysis summary statistics from a large discovery sample, GWAS & Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine use (GSCAN), for smoking initiation (SI; N = 631,564), age of initiating regular smoking (AI; N = 258,251), cigarettes per day (CPD; N = 258,999), smoking cessation (SC; N = 312,273), and drinks per week (DPW; N = 527,402). We then estimated the fixed effect of these PRSs on the liability to 15 phenotypes related to tobacco and alcohol use, substance use disorders, and psychiatric disorders in an independent target sample of Australian adults. RESULTS: After adjusting for multiple testing, 10 of 75 combinations of discovery and target phenotypes remained significant. PRS-SI (R2 range: 1.98%-5.09 %) was positively associated with SI, DPW, and with DSM-IV and FTND nicotine dependence, and conduct disorder. PRS-AI (R2: 3.91 %) negatively associated with DPW. PRS-CPD (R2: 1.56 %-1.77 %) positively associated with DSM-IV nicotine dependence and conduct disorder. PRS-DPW (R2: 3.39 %-6.26 %) positively associated with only DPW. The variation of DPW was significantly influenced by sex*PRS-SI, sex*PRS-AI and sex*PRS-DPW. Such interaction effect was not detected in the other 14 phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risks associated with tobacco use are also associated with liability to alcohol consumption, nicotine dependence, and conduct disorder.

Genetic and environmental risk factors in the non-medical use of over-the-counter or prescribed analgesics, and their relationship to major classes of licit and illicit substance use and misuse in a population-based sample of young adult twins.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The non-medical use of over-the-counter or prescribed analgesics (NMUA) is a significant public health problem. Little is known about the genetic and environmental etiology of NMUA and how these risks relate to other classes of substance use and misuse. Our aims were to estimate the heritability NMUA and sources of genetic and environmental covariance with cannabis and nicotine use, cannabis and alcohol use disorders and nicotine dependence in Australian twins. DESIGN: Biometrical genetic analyses or twin methods using structural equation univariate and multivariate modeling. SETTING: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2007 young adult twins [66% female; µage  = 25.9, standard deviation (SD) = 3.6, range = 18-38] from the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study retrospectively assessed between 2009 and 2016. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported NMUA (non-opioid or opioid-based), life-time nicotine, cannabis and opioid use, DSM-V cannabis and alcohol use disorders and the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence. FINDINGS: Life-time NMUA was reported by 19.4% of the sample. Univariate heritability explained 46% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.29-0.57] of the risks in NMUA. Multivariate analyses revealed that NMUA is moderately associated genetically with cannabis (rg  = 0.41) and nicotine (rg  = 0.45) use and nicotine dependence (rg  = 0.34). In contrast, the genetic correlations with cannabis (rg  = 0.15) and alcohol (rg  = 0.07) use disorders are weak. CONCLUSIONS: In young male and female adults in Australia, the non-medical use of over-the-counter or prescribed analgesics appears to have moderate heritability. NMUA is moderately associated with cannabis and nicotine use and nicotine dependence. Its genetic etiology is largely distinct from that of cannabis and alcohol use disorders.

Association between polygenic risk for tobacco or alcohol consumption and liability to licit and illicit substance use in young Australian adults.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbid substance use is very common. Despite a historical focus using genetic epidemiology to investigate comorbid substance use and misuse, few studies have examined substance-substance associations using polygenic risk score (PRS) methods. METHODS: Using summary statistics from the largest substance use GWAS to date (258,797- 632,802 subjects), GWAS and Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine use (GSCAN), we constructed PRSs for smoking initiation (PRS-SI), age of initiation of regular smoking (PRS-AI), cigarettes per day (PRS-CPD), smoking cessation (PRS-SC), and drinks per week (PRS-DPW). We then estimated the fixed effect of individual PRSs on 22 lifetime substance use and substance use disorder phenotypes collected in an independent sample of 2463 young Australian adults using genetic restricted maximal likelihood (GREML) in Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA), separately in females, males and both sexes together. RESULTS: After accounting for multiple testing, PRS-SI significantly explained variation in the risk of cocaine (0.67%), amphetamine (1.54%), hallucinogens (0.72%), ecstasy (1.66%) and cannabis initiation (0.97%), as well as DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (0.72%). PRS-DPW explained 0.75%, 0.59% and 0.90% of the variation of cocaine, amphetamine and ecstasy initiation respectively. None of the 22 phenotypes including emergent classes of substance use were significantly predicted by PRS-AI, PRS-CPD, and PRS-SC. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to report significant genetic overlap between the polygenic risks for smoking initiation and alcohol consumption and the risk of initiating major classes of illicit substances. PRSs constructed from large discovery GWASs allows the detection of novel genetic associations.

Fear-potentiated startle response as an endophenotype: Evaluating metrics and methods for genetic applications.

The modulation of the startle response (SR) by threatening stimuli (fear-potentiated startle; FPS) is a proposed endophenotype for disorders of the fearful-fearlessness spectrum. FPS has failed to show evidence of heritability, raising concerns. However, metrics used to index FPS-and, importantly, other conditional phenotypes that are dependent on a baseline-may not be suitable for the approaches used in genetic epidemiology studies. Here, we evaluated multiple metrics of FPS in a population-based sample of preadolescent twins (N = 569 from 320 twin pairs, Mage = 11.4) who completed a fear-conditioning paradigm with airpuff-elicited SR on two occasions (~1 month apart). We applied univariate and multivariate biometric modeling to estimate the heritability of FPS using several proposed standardization procedures. This was extended with data simulations to evaluate biases in heritability estimates of FPS (and similar metrics) under various scenarios. Consistent with previous studies, results indicated moderate test-retest reliability (r = 0.59) and heritability of the overall SR (h2 = 34%) but poor reliability and virtually no unique genetic influences on FPS when considering a raw or standardized differential score that removes baseline SR. Simulations demonstrated that the use of differential scores introduces bias in heritability estimates relative to jointly analyzing baseline SR and FPS in a multivariate model. However, strong dependency of FPS on baseline levels makes unique genetic influences virtually impossible to detect regardless of methodology. These findings indicate that FPS and other conditional phenotypes may not be well suited to serve as endophenotypes unless such codependency can be disentangled.

The Genetic and Environmental Relationship Between Childhood Behavioral Inhibition and Preadolescent Anxiety.

This study uses novel approaches to examine genetic and environmental influences shared between childhood behavioral inhibition (BI) and symptoms of preadolescent anxiety disorders. Three hundred and fifty-two twin pairs aged 9-13 and their mothers completed questionnaires about BI and anxiety symptoms. Biometrical twin modeling, including a direction-of-causation design, investigated genetic and environmental risk factors shared between BI and social, generalized, panic and separation anxiety. Social anxiety shared the greatest proportion of genetic (20%) and environmental (16%) variance with BI with tentative evidence for causality. Etiological factors underlying BI explained little of the risk associated with the other anxiety domains. Findings further clarify etiologic pathways between BI and anxiety disorder domains in children.

Type I Error Rates and Parameter Bias in Multivariate Behavioral Genetic Models.

For many multivariate twin models, the numerical Type I error rates are lower than theoretically expected rates using a likelihood ratio test (LRT), which implies that the significance threshold for statistical hypothesis tests is more conservative than most twin researchers realize. This makes the numerical Type II error rates higher than theoretically expected. Furthermore, the discrepancy between the observed and expected error rates increases as more variables are included in the analysis and can have profound implications for hypothesis testing and statistical inference. In two simulation studies, we examine the Type I error rates for the Cholesky decomposition and Correlated Factors models. Both show markedly lower than nominal Type I error rates under the null hypothesis, a discrepancy that increases with the number of variables in the model. In addition, we observe slightly biased parameter estimates for the Cholesky decomposition and Correlated Factors models. By contrast, if the variance-covariance matrices for variance components are estimated directly (without constraints), the numerical Type I error rates are consistent with theoretical expectations and there is no bias in the parameter estimates regardless of the number of variables analyzed. We call this the direct symmetric approach. It appears that each model-implied boundary, whether explicit or implicit, increases the discrepancy between the numerical and theoretical Type I error rates by truncating the sampling distributions of the variance components and inducing bias in the parameters. The direct symmetric approach has several advantages over other multivariate twin models as it corrects the Type I error rate and parameter bias issues, is easy to implement in current software, and has fewer optimization problems. Implications for past and future research, and potential limitations associated with direct estimation of genetic and environmental covariance matrices are discussed.